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That is a thousand fold increase from to There are two important things to note here.
The other thing is that there are only four real data points here in this graph which he published in In the number of components isi. So this is a null data point.
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Then he plots four actual data points, which we assume were taken from what Fairchild could produce, for,andhaving 8, 16, 32, and 64 components. That is a doubling every year. It is an exponential increase in the true sense of exponential.
What is the mechanism for this, how can this work? In the last half page of the four and a half page article Moore explains the limitations of his prediction, saying that for some things, like energy storage, we will not see his predicted trend.
Energy takes up a certain number of atoms and their electrons to store a given amount, so you can not just arbitrarily change the number of atoms and still store the same amount of energy.
Likewise if you have a half gallon milk container you can not put a gallon of milk in it. A circuit element in an integrated circuit just needs to know whether a previous element said yes or no, whether there is a voltage or current there or not.
In the design phase one decides above how many volts or amps, or whatever, means yes, and below how many means no.
And there needs to be a good separation between those numbers, a significant no mans land compared to the maximum and minimum possible. But, the magnitudes do not matter.
I like to think of it like piles of sand. Is there a pile of sand on the table or not? We might have a convention about how big a typical pile of sand is.
But we can make it work if we halve the normal size of a pile of sand. We can still answer whether or not there is a pile of sand there using just half as many grains of sand in a pile. And then we can halve the number again. And the digital abstraction of yes or no still works.
And we can halve it again, and it still works. And again, and again, and again. The most popular versions were doubling of the number of transistors, doubling of the switching speed of those transistors so a computer could run twice as fastdoubling of the amount of memory on a single chip, and doubling of the secondary memory of a computer—originally on mechanically spinning disks, but for the last five years in solid state flash memory.December 4, PM | Posted by Anonymous: | Reply.
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